Petrol Fiyatları Düşer mi?G7’de ne karar alınmıştı? Bizi nasıl etkiler?

Petrol fiyatlarına bir de buradan bakalım!

Son zamanlarda hemen herkes petrol fiyatlarının düşmesinden bahsediyor. IMF’ ye göre Suudi Arabistan’ ın 5 yıllık döviz rezervi kaldı. Ayrıca ülke içindeki petrol tüketici fiyatları oldukça düşük[1]. Bu raporun etkisi oldu mu bilmiyorum ama 28 Aralık’ta gazetelerde yer alan haberlere göre tüketici fiyatlarına %50’den fazla zam yapıldı. 15 Ocak’taki haberlere göre ise Avrupa’ nın hatta dünyanın en müreffeh ülkelerinden birisi olan Norveç “kriz” ilan etti.

18 Ocak’ta Milliyet Gazetesinde yer alan bir habere göre; Brent ham petrolü 27.67 dolara kadar düşerek 2003 yılından bu yana en düşük seviyeyi gördü.

Azerbaycan gibi küçük ülkelerin petrol fiyatlarından etkilenme riski daha fazla. Bu dost ve kardeş ülke2015 yılı içinde iki kez devalüasyon yapmak zorunda kaldı.

Peki, fiyatlar niye düşmüyor?

Söylenen, üretici ülkelerin talepten fazla üretim yapmaları. Arz fazla, talep bu kadar artmıyor gibi.

Peki, ülkeler bile bile niye kısıtlamaya gitmiyor? OPEC niye anlaşamıyor?

Konunun uzmanı değilim. Enerji konusuna kafa yorsam da haliyle iddialı değilim ama gelişmeleri takip ederek değerlendirmek istiyorum.

Nedense bu sene, 7-8 Haziran 2015 tarihlerinde Almanya’da toplanan G7 zirvesine ve burada deklare edilen kararlara gidiyor aklım.

Bloomberg HT’ de yer alan bir habere göre “Fosil yakıt çağı sona erecek: G7 Zirvesi’nin son gününde küresel ekonomi için tarihi bir karar çıktı. Liderler bu yüzyılın sonunda fosil yakıt kullanımını sıfırlama kararı aldı“.

Haberin The Guardian gazetesinde yer alan halini de gözden geçirdim. “G7 leaders agree to phase out fossil fuel use by end of century” diyor. Bunların devamında G7 Zirvesi deklarasyonunu gözden geçirdim.

Zirve sonucunda yayınlanan Deklarasyon temel olarak aşağıdaki bölümlerden oluşuyor. Bu deklarasyon önemli çünkü 2015 yılında alınan bütün kararlar bunu temel alarak alındı. Diğer bir ifade ile «Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030», «Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development», G20 Antalya Deklarasyonu G20-Antalya-Leaders-Summit-Communique- (1) ve «Paris Agreement» gibi son derece önemli uluslararası belgelerin   temelini bu oluşturdu.

1. Küresel ekonomi
2. Küresel ekonominin durumu
3. Kadın girişimciliği
4. Finansal Pazar düzenlemeleri
5. Vergi
6. Ticaret
7. Sorumlu tedarik zincirleri
8. Dış Politika
9. Ortak Değer ve prensiplerle hareket
10. Ukrayna
11. Nükleer güvenlik
12. Deniz güvenliği
13. Silahların yayılmasını önleme
14. İran
15. Kuzey Kore
16. Diplomatik Çözümlerin desteklenmesi
17. Libya
18. İsrail-Filistin
19. Sığınmacı Krizi
20. Terörizm ve finansmanı
21. Afrika
22. Afganistan
23. Nepal
24. Sağlık
25. Ebola (Sıtma)
26. Antimikrobiyal Dayanıklılık
27. Tropikal hastalıklar
28. İklim Değişikliği, Enerji ve Çevre
29. İklim değişikliği
30. Enerji
31. Kaynak etkinliği
32. Deniz çevresinin korunması
33. Kalkınma
34. 2015 sonrası kalkınma hedefleri
35. Gıda güvenliği
36. Kadınların ekonomik olarak desteklenmesi

Diğer konulara ayrıca değinmek lazım ama burda “iklim değişikliği, enerji ve çevre” bölümünün “enerji” alt başlığında alınan kararları irdelemek istiyorum. Metnin Türkçe çevirisi bir yerlerde vardır muhtemelen ama benim elimde yok. O yüzden İngilizce üzerinde çalışacağım. Deklarasyonda yer alan hususlar şöyle:(Leadersʼ Declaration G7 Summit, 7–8 June 2015 Page 15)

 

Climate Change, Energy, and Environment 

Climate Change

Urgent and concrete action is needed to address climate change, as set out in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. We affirm our strong determination to adopt at the Climate Change Conference in December in Paris this year (COP21) a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) applicable to all parties that is ambitious, robust, inclusive and reflects evolving national circumstances.

The agreement should enhance transparency and accountability including through binding rules at its core to track progress towards achieving targets, which should promote increased ambition over time. This should enable all countries to follow a low-carbon and resilient development pathway in line with the global goal to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2 °C.

Mindful of this goal and considering the latest IPCC results, we emphasize that deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions are required with a decarbonisation of the global economy over the course of this century. Accordingly, as a common vision for a global goal of greenhouse gas emissions reductions we support sharing with all parties to the UNFCCC the upper end of the latest IPCC recommendation of 40 to 70% reductions by 2050 compared to 2010 recognizing that this challenge can only be met by a global response. We commit to doing our part to achieve a low-carbon global economy in the long-term including developing and deploying innovative technologies striving for a transformation of the energy sectors by 2050 and invite all countries to join us in this endeavor. To this end we also commit to develop long-term national low-carbon strategies.

The G7 welcomes the announcement or proposal of post-2020 emission targets by all its members, as well as the submission of intended nationally determined contributions (INDC) and calls upon all countries to do so well in advance of COP21. We reaffirm our strong commitment to the Copenhagen Accord to mobilizing jointly USD 100 billion a year by 2020 from a wide variety of sources, both public and private in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation.

Climate finance is already flowing at higher levels. We will continue our efforts to provide and mobilize increased finance, from public and private sources, and to demonstrate that we and others are well on our way to meet the USD 100 bn goal and that we stand ready to engage proactively in the negotiations of the finance provisions of the Paris outcome. We recognize the potential of multilateral development banks (MDBs) in delivering climate finance and helping countries transition to low carbon economies. We call on MDBs to use to the fullest extent possible their balance sheets and their capacity to mobilize other partners in support of country-led programmes to meet this goal. We thank the presidency for the publication of the Background Report on Long-Term Climate Finance and call for a further exchange in all relevant fora in view of COP21.

Mobilization of private sector capital is also crucial for achieving this commitment and unlocking the required investments in low-carbon technologies as well as in building resilience against the effects of climate change. To overcome existing investment barriers finance models with high mobilization effects are needed.

To this end, we will:

a) Intensify our support particularly for vulnerable countries’ own efforts to manage climate change related disaster risk and to build resilience. We will aim to increase by up to 400 million the number of people in the most vulnerable developing countries who have access to direct or indirect insurance coverage against the negative impact of climate change related hazards by 2020 and support the development of early warning systems in the most vulnerable countries. To do so we will learn from and build on already existing risk insurance facilities such as the African Risk Capacity, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility and other efforts to develop insurance solutions and markets in vulnerable regions, including in small islands developing states, Africa, Asia and Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean as set out in the annex.

b) Accelerate access to renewable energy in Africa and developing countries in other regions with a view to reducing energy poverty and mobilizing substantial financial resources from private investors, development finance institutions and multilateral development banks by 2020 building on existing work and initiatives, including by the Global Innovation Lab for Climate Finance as set out in the annex.

We also reaffirm our ambition to make the Green Climate Fund fully operational in 2015 and a key institution of the future climate finance architecture.

We remain committed to the elimination of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies and encourage all countries to follow and we remain committed to continued progress in the OECD discussions on how export credits can contribute to our common goal to address climate change.

We pledge to incorporate climate mitigation and resilience considerations into our development assistance and investment decisions. We will continue our efforts to phase down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and call on all Parties to the Montreal Protocol to negotiate an amendment this year to phase down HFCs and on donors to assist developing countries in its implementation.

In order to incentivize investments towards low-carbon growth opportunities we commit to the long-term objective of applying effective policies and actions throughout the global economy, including carbon market-based and regulatory instruments and call on other countries to join us. We are committed to establishing a platform for a strategic dialogue on these issues based on voluntary participation and in cooperation with relevant partners, including the World Bank.

Energy

We reaffirm our commitment to the energy security principles and specific actions decided in Brussels in 2014, welcome the progress achieved since then under the Rome G7 Energy Initiative and will continue their implementation. Moreover, we welcome the G7 Hamburg Initiative for Sustainable Energy Security, in particular the additional concrete joint actions to further strengthen sustainable energy security in the G7 countries and beyond.

Notably, we reaffirm our support for Ukraine and other vulnerable countries in their ongoing efforts to reform and liberalize their energy systems and reiterate that energy should not be used as a means of political coercion or as a threat to security. We welcome the intention of the Ukrainian government to reduce energy-related subsidies and invest in energy efficiency programmes.

In addition, we intend to continue our work on assessments of energy system vulnerabilities. Moreover, we will work on strengthening the resilience and flexibility of gas markets, covering both pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas. We regard diversification as a core element of energy security and aim to further diversify the energy mix, energy fuels, sources and routes. We will strengthen cooperation in the field of energy efficiency and launch a new cooperative effort on enhancing cybersecurity of the energy sector. And we will work together and with other interested countries to raise the overall coordination and transparency of clean energy research, development and demonstration, highlighting the importance of renewable energy and other low-carbon technologies. We ask our Energy Ministers to take forward these initiatives and report back to us in 2016.

Resource Efficiency

The protection and efficient use of natural resources is vital for sustainable development. We strive to improve resource efficiency, which we consider crucial for the competitiveness of industries, for economic growth and employment, and for the protection of the environment, climate and planet. Building on the “Kobe 3R Action Plan”, and on other existing initiatives, we will continue to take ambitious action to improve resource efficiency as part of broader strategies to promote sustainable materials management and material-cycle societies. We are establishing the G7 Alliance on Resource Efficiency as a forum to share knowledge and create information networks on a voluntary basis. As set out in the annex, the Alliance will collaborate with businesses, SMEs and other relevant stakeholders to advance opportunities offered by resource efficiency, promote best practices, and foster innovation. We acknowledge the benefits of collaborating with developing countries on resource efficiency, including through innovative public private partnerships. We ask the UNEP International Resource Panel to prepare a synthesis report highlighting the most promising potentials and solutions for resource efficiency. We further invite the OECD to develop policy guidance supplementing the synthesis report.

Protection of the Marine Environment

We acknowledge that marine litter, in particular plastic litter, poses a global challenge, directly affecting marine and coastal life and ecosystems and potentially also human health. Accordingly, increased effectiveness and intensity of work is required to combat marine litter striving to initiate a global movement. The G7 commits to priority actions and solutions to combat marine litter as set out in the annex, stressing the need to address land- and sea-based sources, removal actions, as well as education, research and outreach.

We, the G7, take note of the growing interest in deep sea mining beyond the limits of national jurisdiction and the opportunities it presents. We call on the International Seabed Authority to continue, with early involvement of all relevant stakeholders, its work on a clear, effective and transparent code for sustainable deep sea mining, taking into account the interests of developing states. Key priorities include setting up regu-latory certainty and predictability for investors and enhancing the effective protection of the marine environment from harmful effects that may arise from deep sea mining. We are committed to taking a precautionary approach in deep sea mining activities, and to conducting environmental impact assessments and scientific research.